Analysis of the events moving WTI crude oil — last reviewed on October 4, 2026
How the Hormuz risk premium works, how the 2026 closure drove record moves in WTI and blew out the Brent-WTI spread, and where flows and prices stood in early October 2026.
Read the explainer →WTI fell about 6% in the first week of May on US-Iran deal hopes, then jumped more than 3% on May 11 after President Trump rejected Iran's response.
The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in oil market history; Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned normalization could slip into 2027.
The UAE left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026. EIA capacity data, the first OPEC+ meeting without it and what to watch next.
April WTI futures traded from about $119 to $81 in one session — the widest daily range in the contract's history.
Before the war the EIA expected Brent to average about $58 in 2026. How the Hormuz shock overturned the consensus.
TTF jumped almost 50% to about €48/MWh on March 2, 2026 after QatarEnergy halted output at Ras Laffan.
How the Hormuz risk premium works and how it showed up in WTI and Brent prices in 2026.